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How Many Illegal Aliens Will Be Granted Amnesty If Senate Bill Is Adopted?

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The Center for Immigration Studies has released it's report on just how many illegal aliens will be granted legal status under an amnesty if the Senate bill is adopted as immigration law.

The numbers are staggering and frankly I think they are still low.


Based on the outcomes of the last amnesty in 1986, we expect that nearly 10 million illegal aliens will receive amnesty under the Hagel-Martinez bill. That is, they will legalize and eventually apply for permanent residence and be eligible for citizenship. As in 1986, we also expect that one-fourth (2.6 million) will get amnesty fraudulently. The bill will also allow an estimated 4.5 million family members of illegal aliens to join their legalized relatives, for a total of 14.4 million beneficiaries. These estimates do not include the very large increases in future legal immigration in the bill.

  • Based on the 1986 amnesty, we estimate that slightly over 70 percent (7.4 million) of the 10.2 million illegals eligible for the three amnesties in Hagel-Martinez will come forward and receive amnesty legitimately. That is, they will gain legal status allowing them to live and work in the United States and eventually apply for permanent residence and then citizenship.

  • In addition to the 7.4 million expected to receive amnesty legitimately, we estimate that, as in 1986, there will be one fraudulent amnesty awarded for every three legitimate ones. This means that nearly 2.6 million additional illegals will legalize fraudulently, for a total of 9.9 million.

  • In addition to the amnesty beneficiaries, the bill will allow an estimated 4.5 million immediate family members currently living aboard to join their newly legalized relatives for a total of 14.4 million people who will benefit from the bill’s amnesty provisions.

  • Our assumption that the share of illegals who come forward will be similar to the share in 1986 may be too low because, unlike the last legalization, illegals now know that amnesties are real and not a ruse by the government to deport them. Moreover, because the border is now more difficult to cross illegally, legalization is a more attractive option.

  • Our estimate of 2.6 million fraudulent amnesty recipients, based on the 1986 amnesty, may be too low as well because the false-document industry is now more developed. Moreover, the overworked immigration bureaucracy already has a severe fraud problem according the Government Accountability Office. As its workload mushrooms with amnesty, fraud will become even more difficult to detect.

  • Of the 14.4 million illegals and their family members who will receive amnesty, we estimate that 13.5 million will eventually become permanent residents, which means they can stay as along as they wish and apply for citizenship. The rest can be expected to die or return home before becoming permanent residents.

  • The above estimates do not include the bill’s very large increases in future legal immigration, which is expected to double or triple from one million a year under current law.

And then in twenty years we'll do it all again, but with a 10 fold increase as we would be doing here because the Senate bill does almost nothing to combat the continued illegal alien invasion streaming across our border. So next time it'll be 140 million.

Tipped by: Drink This... and Lonewacko

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Posted by Digger on June 16, 2006 12:55 AM (Permalink)

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I do not want the illegal immigrants in this country to be granted amnesty. The Senate has totally lost all of their minds. Send these people back to wherever they came from!!!!

Rebecca Henry
Miami, Florida

Posted by: rebecca henry on June 21, 2006 11:33 AM

I am so tired of people,saying illegal immigrants are taking our jobs,and getting welfare.
That is so untrue to get welfar or any kind of state help you have to show your birth certificate to prove you a citizen. They just dont hand out state aide to just any one who walks into their office. And the jobs thats also not true,I was born in calofornia and worked the fields for years,and I was the only citien there.The unemploy ment awelfare offices would send people to get a job in the fields,And guess what. They would drive out to the fields and then drive away,Only a handful ask for work and the ones that did try lasted 20 minutes more or less,then they would walk out of the field and never came back.So much foramericans

Posted by: Ruth on January 24, 2007 01:49 PM

That is so untrue to get welfar or any kind of state help you have to show your birth certificate to prove you a citizen
... or the birth certificate of your American citizen "anchor baby" that you popped out on US soil which then entitles you to tons of social services. Medi-Cal pays for 100,000 Anchor Babies born each year to illegal aliens. Each of these babies qualifies for thousands of dollars in government services without the parents having to prove their legal status. Accepting welfare assistance is so prevalent in the Hispanic community that it is culturally accepted.

Take the case of the LA county Emergency Room situation where 9 ER's have closed in 5 years and there are $1.6 billion in unpaid costs per year in LA county alone.

I know you're just running on emotion but go have a few looks at some illegal immigration facts

As for the claim that citizens won't work the fields, well that's partially California's fault. They offer so much in welfare benefits and the field workers are paid so low due to the high amount of illegal alien workers willing to work for cheap wages that you're taking a huge "pay" cut just taking the job.

If there weren't as many workers the wages would go up and it might actually start looking appealing to those who could make more working than "sitting on their butt at home" and collecting the same amount or more.

The other part of the problem is those who have grown up in homes that have received welfare their whole lives. They have learned that they can live a semi decent life sitting on their butt and watching TV rather than actually working.

So you are correct that there are many who are lazy, but to suggest that all Americans are just too lazy because they don't want to be paid slave wages is just a ridiculous notion and an insult to the millions of Americans who get up and go to work in manual labor jobs all across this country.

So much for americans

You should really look into your hatred for Americans. Get out of California and you'll realize that the rest of this country is filled with hard working Americans who don't need to rely on illegal aliens in order for our society to exist.

I've lived in 9 different states and no matter where I've lived there are hard working Americans everywhere. However, only when I lived in California did I constantly here this absolute hatred for Americans every time I turned around. How "an American wouldn't do this" or "an American wouldn't do that". It's like a disease passed through the water out there.

Go have a little read over at The Dark Side Of Illegal Immigration. All facts and figures are sourced rather than pulled out of the air.

Posted by: Digger on January 25, 2007 12:09 AM

Also see these other great immigration resources

The Dark Side Of Illegal Immigration
The Dark Side Of Illegal Immigration

A 28 part detailed report on the negative impacts of illegal immigration.
Immigration Stance
Immigration Stance

Find out how your members of Congress voted on immigration issues.

The Dark Side Of Illegal Immigration
Read the free 28 part report The Dark Side of
Illegal Immigration

Includes facts, figures
and statistics.

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